Since Amazon
launched the new Kindle Countdown Deals for KDP Select members in late October, indie
authors seem to have various degrees of success. Some sold an astronomical number,
some none. Below is what I’ve figured out about this program based on recent
experience.
If you go to
the Kindle Countdown Deals page, you’ll see somewhere around 2,800 titles. And
if you choose, for example, the Science Fiction & Fantasy Category, there
are 377 titles for the moment arranged on 24 pages. Pay specific attention to
the “Sort by” option. Although you can choose different sorting algorithms, readers
normally go with the default, with is “New and Popular”. I don’t have the exact
formula, but I’ve heard that the popularity of a book is not determined by the
current rank, but by the amount of books sold in the past 30 days, with a
weighing factor of the book’s price.
I’m not saying
that visibility determines everything, but if a book is listed on the 5th page,
there is no way you can go to that page directly without browsing through the
previous pages (you can jump to the second or the third). A title listed on the
first page can have 10 times more sales than a title listed on the second page,
and who would bother to explore the later pages except the author himself? However---I
could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure this is what happens---the rank of a book on
this list is determined (and remains fixed!) by the popularity before the book enters the Countdown.
Let me give you an example.
I first ran
a Countdown with my science fiction,
The Starlight Fortress, during the week of
Nov 3. Since the book was selling very well in October, it appeared on the
second page of the Sci-fi & fantasy category, even though there were 34
pages at that time, and stayed there for the entire week. Consequently, I sold
26 copies of the book with only 6 customer reviews and no extra promotions.
Yesterday I started my second Countdown. Because I only sold two copies in the
past 30 days, my book appeared on the 5
th page. Although I have
other paid promotions yesterday and today, and have already sold 11 copies by
far, the book keeps falling in the Sci-fi & fantasy list, making room for
new entries that have much lower ranks but were presumably selling better
before they entered. There are still several days to go, but I can predict that
once the effects of my paid promotions fade away, the Countdown won’t work
alone.
So, here is
the logic. Let’s say we have Book A, which hasn’t been selling well at a
regular price; after it entered the Countdown, for some reason, it is doing
well. Then here comes Book B, which has been selling but is currently ranked
lower than A. Amazon does not want to put B after A, because B is considered a more
promising title. In other words, A has already been deemed as an inferior
title at the time it entered, and they do not want the performance of the
Countdown to affect the performance of the Countdown (is this clear?). We have
to admit that doing so will likely maximize Amazon’s profits. After all, it’s
an online retailer, not an author-nurture program.
In summary,
if your book hasn’t been doing well on a regular basis, you shouldn’t expect too
much with the Countdown, unless you
pair it with other promotions.