Truth about the Kindle Countdown Deals

Since Amazon launched the new Kindle Countdown Deals for KDP Select members in late October, indie authors seem to have various degrees of success. Some sold an astronomical number, some none. Below is what I’ve figured out about this program based on recent experience.

If you go to the Kindle Countdown Deals page, you’ll see somewhere around 2,800 titles. And if you choose, for example, the Science Fiction & Fantasy Category, there are 377 titles for the moment arranged on 24 pages. Pay specific attention to the “Sort by” option. Although you can choose different sorting algorithms, readers normally go with the default, with is “New and Popular”. I don’t have the exact formula, but I’ve heard that the popularity of a book is not determined by the current rank, but by the amount of books sold in the past 30 days, with a weighing factor of the book’s price.

I’m not saying that visibility determines everything, but if a book is listed on the 5th page, there is no way you can go to that page directly without browsing through the previous pages (you can jump to the second or the third). A title listed on the first page can have 10 times more sales than a title listed on the second page, and who would bother to explore the later pages except the author himself? However---I could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure this is what happens---the rank of a book on this list is determined (and remains fixed!) by the popularity before the book enters the Countdown. Let me give you an example.

I first ran a Countdown with my science fiction, The Starlight Fortress, during the week of Nov 3. Since the book was selling very well in October, it appeared on the second page of the Sci-fi & fantasy category, even though there were 34 pages at that time, and stayed there for the entire week. Consequently, I sold 26 copies of the book with only 6 customer reviews and no extra promotions. Yesterday I started my second Countdown. Because I only sold two copies in the past 30 days, my book appeared on the 5^th page. Although I have other paid promotions yesterday and today, and have already sold 11 copies by far, the book keeps falling in the Sci-fi & fantasy list, making room for new entries that have much lower ranks but were presumably selling better before they entered. There are still several days to go, but I can predict that once the effects of my paid promotions fade away, the Countdown won’t work alone.

So, here is the logic. Let’s say we have Book A, which hasn’t been selling well at a regular price; after it entered the Countdown, for some reason, it is doing well. Then here comes Book B, which has been selling but is currently ranked lower than A. Amazon does not want to put B after A, because B is considered a more promising title. In other words, A has already been deemed as an inferior title at the time it entered, and they do not want the performance of the Countdown to affect the performance of the Countdown (is this clear?). We have to admit that doing so will likely maximize Amazon’s profits. After all, it’s an online retailer, not an author-nurture program.

In summary, if your book hasn’t been doing well on a regular basis, you shouldn’t expect too much with the Countdown, unless you pair it with other promotions.